What are my chances?

For those who would like to read an assessment of the likelihood of cryonics working, Steven Harris, a physician, has taken the Sagan-Drake equation and applied it to cryonics to judge the probability of cryonics working.   Michael Perry, a computer scientist specializing in mathematical methods, has made adjustments to this work to be more mathematically rigorous, resulting in an improved methodology for the probability of cryonics working.

Both assessments tackle the technological, environmental and social aspects of cryonics working.  To quote Michael Perry’s conclusions, “In my estimation, cryonics will probably work on purely technological grounds, though there are uncertainties.  When social factors are taken into consideration the outcome is less certain, maybe in the 50-50 range, but it still leaves reasonable ground for hope.”

If you wish to use your own ideas to determine how likely cryonics is to work, have a look at the Cryonics Calculator, which will give you an estimate that takes into account any concerns you may have about disasters, financial failures, and so on.

We consider cryonics to be based on science, so it is always important to provide as wide a range of scientific opinions as possible.  We therefore need to consider various viewpoints and we encourage you to do so as well.

There are many scientists who consider cryonics a reasonable possibility.  Almost no scientist will say that it is a future impossibility.  To give you a wider perspective, we have this interesting article that addresses the issues with cryonics.  Even though this article does cover the issues and challenges ahead, it also highlights that most of the people interested in cryonics are well educated, primarily in science related areas.

For more information please also visit the Alcor web site.  Alcor is one of the two cryonics organizations in the US.  While they obviously show science supporting cryonics, they also have a good summary of alternate opinions.